I had a chance to get out and about last week.
The nominal reason was attendance at the annual Hospitality Design Boutique Show in Miami, as a walker, rather than our more normal role as an exhibitor. Trade show participation is expensive, and I'm sure I have plenty of company these days in evaluating where to spend the promotional bucks.
So what did I think of HD Boutique? I was able to have some meetings at the small show, so that means some key people were there. I also missed some meetings (for "nobody's fault" reasons), and couldn't reschedule due to travel plans. So that means some key people were there, but not for long - maybe one day, or even just a few hours. The show is small, and can be navigated in one day or less.
Not one wood flooring company was exhibiting. Our major competitors apparently stayed away in droves. Perhaps that tells a story in itself.
I spent another couple of days in South Florida, looking for signs of commercial life. I didn't find much, at least not at the high-end, where we live. Some large projects are under construction up the coast, but are rumored to be high-priced housing with low-priced components, such as cheapie commodity wood flooring or low-end tile. What consumer would knowing buy into that?
I visited a project using our Plantation custom teak plank and parquet floors, and I got some photos of the installation under way. They're posted on our website in the Gallery.
Even though Florida seems dull (unless we're missing it), other geographies around the nation are more productive. Indeed, our Oxnard factory is now running full blast again - to the point where we needed more skilled folks making our custom floors, and weekly overtime, just to meet our promised lead times!
Imagine that... carefully calculating lead times! And overtime! And hiring! Must say I'm pleasantly surprised, and of course very excited.
I have long predicted that any recovery in flooring orders will exchange one set of problems for another set. My projection has been that raw materials will suddenly get scarce in any recovery scenario, particularly if the pent-up demand we have been expecting manifests itself in orders requiring immediate delivery!
And that is exactly what is happening... many of our new orders are actually old projects now getting funded and transacted. The demand frequently now is that we make custom floors fast! We ourselves can do that, because we own and operate the California factory, rather than outsource our production to China, Europe, or even down the street.
But no manufacturer, including us, controls the stream of manufacturing inputs such as lumber, finish, and add-on machinery. That pipeline of materials is predictably drier than most people expected. Fortunately, we have some defensive wood inventory, and several of our selected suppliers are well-stocked as well. The likely outcome of this situation is that orders will get made from existing raw materials inventories, then will get delayed as the raw materials disappear.
This scenario of depleted raw material pipelines suggests the wisdom of buying now rather than later. Again, I say...
Imagine that!
